Los Angeles Kings at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-02-28 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 6 - 2 Los Angeles Kings

🚨 Upset Win (57% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 43.0%

LAK: 57.0%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.16

LAK: 3.20

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

LAK

Darcy Kuemper - 10-7-6 | 0.913 SV% | 2.27 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	31	29	2	93.5%	3.52	2	1.52
LAK	Darcy Kuemper	31	25	6	80.6%	5.02	7	-0.98

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • DAL at home vs LAK: 7-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-12	LAK 1 - 3 DAL	DAL	LAK
2025-12-15	DAL 4 - 1 LAK	DAL	DAL
2025-10-23	DAL 2 - 3 LAK	LAK	DAL
2025-02-28	DAL 6 - 2 LAK	DAL	LAK
2025-02-07	LAK 5 - 4 DAL	LAK	LAK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	19	5	2.35
1	LAK	15	2	1.17
2	DAL	14	1	0.79
2	LAK	24	0	1.22
3	DAL	12	1	1.88
3	LAK	21	0	1.13

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 6 - 2 Los Angeles Kings

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2