Minnesota Wild at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2025-02-28 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 5 - 2 Minnesota Wild

Win Probability

COL: 79.5%

MIN: 20.5%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.94

MIN: 2.47

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 42%

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	20	18	2	90.0%	2.33	2	0.33
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	30	25	5	83.3%	3.35	2	-1.65

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 76% • COL at home vs MIN: 7-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-13	COL 4 - 3 MIN	COL	COL
2026-05-11	MIN 2 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2026-05-09	MIN 5 - 1 COL	MIN	COL
2026-05-05	COL 5 - 2 MIN	COL	COL
2026-05-03	COL 9 - 6 MIN	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	20	1	1.26
1	MIN	14	2	1.08
2	COL	18	0	1.29
2	MIN	7	0	0.41
3	COL	7	1	0.80
3	MIN	12	0	0.84

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 79.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 5 - 2 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 3.9 - 2.5