Boston Bruins at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-03-01 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 3 Boston Bruins

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 54.7%

BOS: 45.3%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.39

BOS: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 47%

PIT

Alex Nedeljkovic - 14-15-5 | 0.894 SV% | 3.12 GAA

BOS

Joonas Korpisalo - 6-8-0 | 0.882 SV% | 3.60 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Alex Nedeljkovic	26	23	3	88.5%	2.51	2	-0.49
BOS	Joonas Korpisalo	33	31	2	93.9%	2.82	2	0.82

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • PIT at home vs BOS: 2-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-08	PIT 5 - 4 BOS	PIT	PIT
2026-03-03	BOS 2 - 1 PIT	BOS	BOS
2026-01-11	BOS 1 - 0 PIT	BOS	BOS
2025-04-13	PIT 1 - 4 BOS	BOS	PIT
2025-03-01	PIT 2 - 3 BOS	BOS	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	19	2	1.37
1	BOS	14	1	1.02
2	PIT	10	0	0.50
2	BOS	14	0	0.68
3	PIT	20	0	0.95
3	BOS	7	1	0.81

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 3 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.4 - 3.0