Boston Bruins at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions
2025-03-01 • PPG Paints Arena
Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 3 Boston Bruins
🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PIT: 61.2%
BOS: 38.8%
Expected Goals
PIT: 3.21
BOS: 2.80
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 56%
Over 6.5: 41%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 19-12-5 | 0.890 SV% | 2.79 GAA
BOS
Jeremy Swayman - 22-12-3 | 0.903 SV% | 2.92 GAA
| Stat | PIT | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.888 | 0.903 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.863 | 0.889 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.947 | — |
| GAA | 2.91 | 2.84 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 29% • PIT at home vs BOS: 0-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-11 | BOS 1 - 0 PIT | BOS | BOS |
| 2025-04-13 | PIT 1 - 4 BOS | BOS | PIT |
| 2025-03-01 | PIT 2 - 3 BOS | BOS | PIT |
| 2024-11-29 | BOS 1 - 2 PIT | PIT | BOS |
| 2024-04-13 | PIT 4 - 6 BOS | BOS | PIT |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 01:32 | BOS | Goal |
| 1 | 06:33 | BOS | Goal |
| 3 | 14:01 | BOS | Goal |
| 3 | 19:19 | BOS | Goal |
| 3 | 19:38 | BOS | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 61.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 3 Boston Bruins
Expected: 3.2 - 2.8