Boston Bruins at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-03-01 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 3 Boston Bruins

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 58.1%

BOS: 41.9%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.28

BOS: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • PIT at home vs BOS: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-08	PIT 5 - 4 BOS	PIT	PIT
2026-03-03	BOS 2 - 1 PIT	BOS	BOS
2026-01-11	BOS 1 - 0 PIT	BOS	BOS
2025-04-13	PIT 1 - 4 BOS	BOS	PIT
2025-03-01	PIT 2 - 3 BOS	BOS	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	19	2	1.37
1	BOS	14	1	1.02
2	PIT	10	0	0.50
2	BOS	14	0	0.68
3	PIT	20	0	0.95
3	BOS	7	1	0.81

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 3 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0