Montreal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions
2025-03-01 • KeyBank Center
Buffalo Sabres 2 - 4 Montreal Canadiens
🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BUF: 57.4%
MTL: 42.6%
Expected Goals
BUF: 3.17
MTL: 3.03
Total Goals
Median: 5.9
Over 5.5: 53%
Over 6.5: 40%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
BUF
Alex Lyon - 14-8-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.72 GAA
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 18-5-4 | 0.892 SV% | 2.96 GAA
| Stat | BUF | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.906 | 0.889 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.934 | 0.903 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.902 | 0.943 |
| GAA | 2.82 | 3.01 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • BUF at home vs MTL: 1-5
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | BUF 2 - 4 MTL | MTL | BUF |
| 2026-01-22 | MTL 2 - 4 BUF | BUF | MTL |
| 2026-01-15 | BUF 5 - 3 MTL | BUF | BUF |
| 2025-10-20 | MTL 4 - 2 BUF | MTL | MTL |
| 2025-03-03 | MTL 4 - 3 BUF | MTL | MTL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 01:13 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 06:04 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 07:33 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 13:33 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 19:57 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 18:22 | MTL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 57.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
Buffalo Sabres 2 - 4 Montreal Canadiens
Expected: 3.2 - 3.0