Edmonton Oilers at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2025-03-01 • Lenovo Center

Carolina Hurricanes 1 - 3 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Loss (68% underdog)

Win Probability

CAR: 67.7%

EDM: 32.3%

Expected Goals

CAR: 3.18

EDM: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

EDM

Calvin Pickard - 4-5-2 | 0.874 SV% | 3.69 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Frederik Andersen	31	28	3	90.3%	4.86	5	1.86
EDM	Calvin Pickard	36	35	1	97.2%	5.00	6	4.00

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • CAR at home vs EDM: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-06	EDM 3 - 6 CAR	CAR	EDM
2025-11-15	CAR 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	CAR
2025-03-01	CAR 1 - 3 EDM	EDM	CAR
2024-10-22	EDM 2 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2023-12-06	EDM 6 - 1 CAR	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	10	1	0.90
1	EDM	12	1	0.93
2	CAR	16	0	1.15
2	EDM	19	1	1.70
3	CAR	24	5	2.95
3	EDM	15	3	2.22

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 67.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Carolina Hurricanes 1 - 3 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.2 - 2.9