Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2025-03-03 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 2 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

FLA: 49.1%

TBL: 50.9%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.68

TBL: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 52%

Over 6.5: 38%

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	29	28	1	96.6%	3.79	4	2.79
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	29	27	2	93.1%	2.18	0	0.18

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • FLA at home vs TBL: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	TBL 6 - 1 FLA	TBL	TBL
2025-12-27	FLA 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-12-15	TBL 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	TBL
2025-11-15	FLA 1 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-04-30	TBL 3 - 6 FLA	FLA	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	13	0	0.60
1	TBL	14	1	0.92
2	FLA	17	0	0.82
2	TBL	15	0	0.46
3	FLA	17	0	0.76
3	TBL	21	3	2.40

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 2 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.7 - 2.9