New York Islanders at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2025-03-03 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 4 - 0 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Win (57% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 43.1%

NYI: 56.9%

Expected Goals

NYR: 2.88

NYI: 2.98

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 44%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	21	21	0	100.0%	2.10	2	2.10
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	27	23	4	85.2%	4.04	3	0.04

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • NYR at home vs NYI: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-29	NYR 1 - 2 NYI	NYI	NYR
2026-01-28	NYI 5 - 2 NYR	NYI	NYI
2025-12-27	NYI 2 - 0 NYR	NYI	NYI
2025-11-08	NYR 0 - 5 NYI	NYI	NYR
2025-04-10	NYI 2 - 9 NYR	NYR	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	15	0	0.98
1	NYI	12	1	0.71
2	NYR	14	0	0.81
2	NYI	11	1	0.77
3	NYR	19	3	2.26
3	NYI	10	0	0.62

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 4 - 0 New York Islanders

Expected: 2.9 - 3.0