San Jose Sharks at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions
2025-03-03 • Scotiabank Arena
Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 3 San Jose Sharks
🚨 Upset Loss (65% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TOR: 65.1%
SJS: 34.9%
Expected Goals
TOR: 3.12
SJS: 2.63
Total Goals
Median: 4.7
Over 5.5: 36%
Over 6.5: 24%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TOR
Joseph Woll - 15-16-7 | 0.898 SV% | 3.34 GAA
SJS
Yaroslav Askarov - 21-20-4 | 0.883 SV% | 3.63 GAA
| Stat | TOR | SJS |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.914 | 0.896 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.863 | 0.862 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | 2.74 | 3.36 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TOR at home vs SJS: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | SJS 4 - 1 TOR | SJS | SJS |
| 2025-12-11 | TOR 2 - 3 SJS | SJS | TOR |
| 2025-03-27 | SJS 6 - 5 TOR | SJS | SJS |
| 2025-03-03 | TOR 2 - 3 SJS | SJS | TOR |
| 2024-01-09 | TOR 7 - 1 SJS | TOR | TOR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 08:28 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 19:55 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 02:23 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 10:10 | TOR | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | TOR | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | TOR | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | TOR | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 65.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 5.8
Score Breakdown
Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 3 San Jose Sharks
Expected: 3.1 - 2.6
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