San Jose Sharks at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2025-03-04 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 2 - 6 San Jose Sharks

🚨 Upset Loss (65% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 64.8%

SJS: 35.2%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.39

SJS: 2.74

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • BUF at home vs SJS: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-19	SJS 0 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-03-10	BUF 6 - 3 SJS	BUF	BUF
2025-03-04	BUF 2 - 6 SJS	SJS	BUF
2024-11-23	SJS 2 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF
2024-01-27	SJS 2 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	11	0	0.81
1	SJS	20	1	1.78
2	BUF	12	1	0.67
2	SJS	15	1	0.82
3	BUF	9	0	0.44
3	SJS	12	1	0.89

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 64.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 2 - 6 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 3.4 - 2.7