San Jose Sharks at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions
2025-03-04 • KeyBank Center
Buffalo Sabres 2 - 6 San Jose Sharks
🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BUF: 62.5%
SJS: 37.5%
Expected Goals
BUF: 3.38
SJS: 2.89
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 60%
Over 6.5: 44%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
BUF
Alex Lyon - 14-8-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.72 GAA
SJS
Yaroslav Askarov - 17-15-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.53 GAA
| Stat | BUF | SJS |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.906 | 0.896 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.934 | 0.874 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | 2.82 | 3.36 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 25% • BUF at home vs SJS: 1-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-04 | BUF 2 - 6 SJS | SJS | BUF |
| 2024-11-23 | SJS 2 - 4 BUF | BUF | SJS |
| 2024-01-27 | SJS 2 - 5 BUF | BUF | SJS |
| 2024-01-15 | BUF 3 - 0 SJS | BUF | BUF |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 01:01 | SJS | Goal |
| 2 | 05:13 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 18:22 | SJS | Goal |
| 3 | 02:19 | SJS | Goal |
| 3 | 06:55 | SJS | Goal |
| 3 | 07:58 | SJS | Goal |
| 3 | 12:49 | SJS | Goal |
| 3 | 18:01 | SJS | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 62.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
Buffalo Sabres 2 - 6 San Jose Sharks
Expected: 3.4 - 2.9