San Jose Sharks at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions
2025-03-04 • KeyBank Center
Buffalo Sabres 2 - 6 San Jose Sharks
🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BUF: 57.5%
SJS: 42.5%
Expected Goals
BUF: 3.45
SJS: 2.79
Total Goals
Median: 6.2
Over 5.5: 62%
Over 6.5: 47%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
BUF
Alex Lyon - 20-10-4 | 0.906 SV% | 2.77 GAA
SJS
Yaroslav Askarov - 21-20-4 | 0.883 SV% | 3.63 GAA
| Stat | BUF | SJS |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.906 | 0.896 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.847 | 0.862 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.930 | 0.800 |
| GAA | 2.82 | 3.36 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • BUF at home vs SJS: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-19 | SJS 0 - 5 BUF | BUF | SJS |
| 2026-03-10 | BUF 6 - 3 SJS | BUF | BUF |
| 2025-03-04 | BUF 2 - 6 SJS | SJS | BUF |
| 2024-11-23 | SJS 2 - 4 BUF | BUF | BUF |
| 2024-01-27 | SJS 2 - 5 BUF | BUF | BUF |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 01:01 | SJS | Goal |
| 2 | 05:13 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 18:22 | SJS | Goal |
| 3 | 02:19 | SJS | Goal |
| 3 | 06:55 | SJS | Goal |
| 3 | 07:58 | SJS | Goal |
| 3 | 12:49 | SJS | Goal |
| 3 | 18:01 | SJS | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 57.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
Buffalo Sabres 2 - 6 San Jose Sharks
Expected: 3.4 - 2.8
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