Columbus Blue Jackets at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-03-04 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 2 Columbus Blue Jackets

Win Probability

TBL: 56.7%

CBJ: 43.3%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.77

CBJ: 2.78

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

TBL

Jonas Johansson - 9-6-1 | 0.894 SV% | 2.83 GAA

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Jonas Johansson	33	31	2	93.9%	2.75	1	0.75
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	40	34	6	85.0%	4.09	3	-1.91

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • TBL at home vs CBJ: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-10	TBL 2 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	TBL
2026-01-24	CBJ 8 - 5 TBL	CBJ	TBL
2025-10-18	CBJ 3 - 2 TBL	CBJ	CBJ
2025-03-04	TBL 6 - 2 CBJ	TBL	TBL
2024-12-17	TBL 5 - 3 CBJ	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	13	1	0.96
1	CBJ	15	0	0.56
2	TBL	21	0	1.27
2	CBJ	11	1	1.14
3	TBL	19	2	1.87
3	CBJ	21	0	1.04

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 2 Columbus Blue Jackets

Expected: 3.8 - 2.8