Calgary Flames at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2025-03-04 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 6 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 61.2%

CGY: 38.8%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.21

CGY: 2.83

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 42%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • PHI at home vs CGY: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-31	CGY 5 - 1 PHI	CGY	CGY
2025-11-02	PHI 1 - 2 CGY	CGY	PHI
2025-03-04	PHI 3 - 6 CGY	CGY	PHI
2024-10-12	CGY 6 - 3 PHI	CGY	CGY
2024-01-06	PHI 3 - 2 CGY	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	16	1	1.07
1	CGY	18	0	0.93
2	PHI	18	0	0.77
2	CGY	15	1	1.12
3	PHI	10	1	1.32
3	CGY	16	1	1.22

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 6 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.2 - 2.8