Winnipeg Jets at New York Islanders NHL Predictions
2025-03-04 • UBS Arena
New York Islanders 3 - 2 Winnipeg Jets
🚨 Upset Win (66% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NYI: 34.3%
WPG: 65.7%
Expected Goals
NYI: 2.95
WPG: 3.50
Total Goals
Median: 6.9
Over 5.5: 67%
Over 6.5: 53%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NYI
Ilya Sorokin - 29-24-2 | 0.906 SV% | 2.68 GAA
WPG
Connor Hellebuyck - 23-23-11 | 0.895 SV% | 2.86 GAA
| Stat | NYI | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.907 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.851 | 0.867 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.809 | 0.852 |
| GAA | 2.55 | 2.51 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NYI at home vs WPG: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-13 | WPG 5 - 4 NYI | WPG | WPG |
| 2025-10-13 | NYI 2 - 5 WPG | WPG | NYI |
| 2025-03-04 | NYI 3 - 2 WPG | NYI | WPG |
| 2025-02-07 | WPG 4 - 3 NYI | WPG | WPG |
| 2024-03-23 | NYI 6 - 3 WPG | NYI | NYI |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16:49 | NYI | Goal |
| 2 | 01:33 | NYI | Goal |
| 2 | 08:48 | NYI | Goal |
| 3 | 04:03 | NYI | Goal |
| 3 | 12:51 | NYI | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 65.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.5
Score Breakdown
New York Islanders 3 - 2 Winnipeg Jets
Expected: 2.9 - 3.5
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