New Jersey Devils at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-03-04 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 4 - 3 New Jersey Devils

Win Probability

DAL: 53.3%

NJD: 46.7%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.43

NJD: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • DAL at home vs NJD: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	DAL 4 - 6 NJD	NJD	DAL
2025-12-03	NJD 0 - 3 DAL	DAL	NJD
2025-03-04	DAL 4 - 3 NJD	DAL	DAL
2025-02-22	NJD 2 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-03-14	DAL 2 - 6 NJD	NJD	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	12	1	1.15
1	NJD	14	1	0.68
2	DAL	11	3	1.34
2	NJD	17	0	0.93
3	DAL	7	1	0.48
3	NJD	15	1	1.54

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 4 - 3 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 3.4 - 3.1