Pittsburgh Penguins at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2025-03-04 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 4 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

COL: 65.5%

PIT: 34.5%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.75

PIT: 2.71

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • COL at home vs PIT: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	PIT 2 - 6 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-16	COL 2 - 7 PIT	PIT	COL
2025-03-04	COL 4 - 1 PIT	COL	COL
2024-12-10	PIT 2 - 6 COL	COL	COL
2024-03-24	COL 5 - 4 PIT	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	15	1	1.01
1	PIT	16	1	1.37
2	COL	13	1	1.00
2	PIT	15	1	1.23
3	COL	15	2	2.13
3	PIT	13	0	0.30

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 65.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 4 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.7 - 2.7