Anaheim Ducks at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2025-03-04 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 2 - 6 Anaheim Ducks

🚨 Upset Loss (75% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 74.6%

ANA: 25.4%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.95

ANA: 2.81

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

EDM

Calvin Pickard - 4-5-2 | 0.874 SV% | 3.69 GAA

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Calvin Pickard	27	21	6	77.8%	2.86	3	-3.14
ANA	Lukas Dostal	35	33	2	94.3%	3.54	3	1.54

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • EDM at home vs ANA: 7-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-30	ANA 5 - 2 EDM	ANA	ANA
2026-04-28	EDM 4 - 1 ANA	EDM	EDM
2026-04-26	ANA 4 - 3 EDM	ANA	ANA
2026-04-24	ANA 7 - 4 EDM	ANA	ANA
2026-04-22	EDM 4 - 6 ANA	ANA	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	20	0	1.46
1	ANA	11	1	1.09
2	EDM	14	3	1.28
2	ANA	10	1	0.83
3	EDM	21	0	0.80
3	ANA	12	1	0.94

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 74.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 2 - 6 Anaheim Ducks

Expected: 4.0 - 2.8