Washington Capitals at New York Rangers NHL Predictions
2025-03-05 • Madison Square Garden
New York Rangers 2 - 3 Washington Capitals
🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NYR: 58.9%
WSH: 41.1%
Expected Goals
NYR: 3.28
WSH: 2.55
Total Goals
Median: 5.4
Over 5.5: 44%
Over 6.5: 30%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NYR
Igor Shesterkin - 25-19-6 | 0.912 SV% | 2.50 GAA
WSH
Logan Thompson - 31-21-6 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA
| Stat | NYR | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.912 | 0.912 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.925 | 0.700 |
| GAA | 2.51 | 2.39 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • NYR at home vs WSH: 5-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | NYR 8 - 1 WSH | NYR | WSH |
| 2025-12-31 | WSH 6 - 3 NYR | WSH | WSH |
| 2025-12-23 | WSH 3 - 7 NYR | NYR | WSH |
| 2025-10-12 | NYR 0 - 1 WSH | WSH | NYR |
| 2025-03-05 | NYR 2 - 3 WSH | WSH | NYR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 01:04 | WSH | Goal |
| 1 | 13:37 | NYR | Goal |
| 2 | 08:05 | NYR | Goal |
| 3 | 10:28 | NYR | Goal |
| 4 | 04:07 | WSH | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 58.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 5.8
Score Breakdown
New York Rangers 2 - 3 Washington Capitals
Expected: 3.3 - 2.5
Like this analysis? Get it daily.
Short, data-driven emails. Unsubscribe any time.