Washington Capitals at New York Rangers NHL Predictions
2025-03-05 • Madison Square Garden
New York Rangers 2 - 3 Washington Capitals
🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NYR: 60.4%
WSH: 39.6%
Expected Goals
NYR: 3.24
WSH: 2.78
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 56%
Over 6.5: 41%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NYR
Igor Shesterkin - 17-12-4 | 0.913 SV% | 2.45 GAA
WSH
Logan Thompson - 20-16-4 | 0.913 SV% | 2.41 GAA
| Stat | NYR | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.942 | 0.904 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.906 | 0.700 |
| GAA | 2.51 | 2.39 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • NYR at home vs WSH: 4-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | WSH 6 - 3 NYR | WSH | WSH |
| 2025-12-23 | WSH 3 - 7 NYR | NYR | WSH |
| 2025-10-12 | NYR 0 - 1 WSH | WSH | NYR |
| 2025-03-05 | NYR 2 - 3 WSH | WSH | NYR |
| 2025-01-04 | WSH 7 - 4 NYR | WSH | WSH |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 01:04 | WSH | Goal |
| 1 | 13:37 | NYR | Goal |
| 2 | 08:05 | NYR | Goal |
| 3 | 10:28 | NYR | Goal |
| 4 | 04:07 | WSH | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 60.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
New York Rangers 2 - 3 Washington Capitals
Expected: 3.2 - 2.8