Washington Capitals at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2025-03-05 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 2 - 3 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 53.8%

WSH: 46.2%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.37

WSH: 2.92

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • NYR at home vs WSH: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-05	NYR 8 - 1 WSH	NYR	NYR
2025-12-31	WSH 6 - 3 NYR	WSH	WSH
2025-12-23	WSH 3 - 7 NYR	NYR	WSH
2025-10-12	NYR 0 - 1 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-03-05	NYR 2 - 3 WSH	WSH	NYR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	12	0	0.82
1	WSH	12	0	0.56
2	NYR	13	1	1.02
2	WSH	11	1	0.89
3	NYR	11	1	0.62
3	WSH	18	0	1.25
4	NYR	3	0	0.25
4	WSH	4	0	0.24

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 2 - 3 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.4 - 2.9