Toronto Maple Leafs at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions
2025-03-05 • T-Mobile Arena
Vegas Golden Knights 5 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
VGK: 59.1%
TOR: 40.9%
Expected Goals
VGK: 3.27
TOR: 2.92
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 59%
Over 6.5: 42%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-6-6 | 0.895 SV% | 2.53 GAA
TOR
Joseph Woll - 13-7-4 | 0.908 SV% | 2.92 GAA
| Stat | VGK | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.895 | 0.914 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.891 | 0.910 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.818 |
| GAA | 2.50 | 2.74 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • VGK at home vs TOR: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | TOR 3 - 6 VGK | VGK | TOR |
| 2026-01-15 | VGK 6 - 5 TOR | VGK | VGK |
| 2025-03-05 | VGK 5 - 2 TOR | VGK | VGK |
| 2024-11-20 | TOR 3 - 0 VGK | TOR | TOR |
| 2024-02-27 | TOR 2 - 6 VGK | VGK | TOR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 04:33 | VGK | Goal |
| 1 | 11:18 | VGK | Goal |
| 1 | 15:03 | VGK | Goal |
| 2 | 00:17 | VGK | Goal |
| 2 | 13:33 | VGK | Goal |
| 2 | 18:01 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 13:27 | VGK | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 59.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
Vegas Golden Knights 5 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected: 3.3 - 2.9