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Toronto Maple Leafs at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-03-05 • T-Mobile Arena
Vegas Golden Knights 5 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability
VGK: 67.7%
TOR: 32.3%
Expected Goals
VGK: 3.98
TOR: 2.55
Total Goals
Median: 7.5
Over 5.5: 76%
Over 6.5: 62%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-10-6 | 0.893 SV% | 2.59 GAA
TOR
Joseph Woll - 15-16-7 | 0.898 SV% | 3.34 GAA
StatVGKTOR
Season SV%0.8950.914
Last 5 SV%0.8790.863
SV% vs Opponent—0.818
GAA2.502.74
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • VGK at home vs TOR: 2-1
DateScoreWinnerModel Pick
2026-01-23TOR 3 - 6 VGKVGKVGK
2026-01-15VGK 6 - 5 TORVGKVGK
2025-03-05VGK 5 - 2 TORVGKVGK
2024-11-20TOR 3 - 0 VGKTORTOR
2024-02-27TOR 2 - 6 VGKVGKTOR

⚡ In-Game Win Probability

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 0:00 20:00 40:00 60:00 In-Game Win Probability Home Win Probability Game Time (minutes)

Goals

PeriodTimeTeamScorer
104:33VGKGoal
111:18VGKGoal
115:03VGKGoal
200:17VGKGoal
213:33VGKGoal
218:01VGKGoal
313:27VGKGoal

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 67.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.5
Score Breakdown
Vegas Golden Knights 5 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected: 4.0 - 2.5