St. Louis Blues at Los Angeles Kings NHL Predictions

2025-03-05 • Crypto.com Arena

Los Angeles Kings 2 - 3 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

Win Probability

LAK: 60.6%

STL: 39.4%

Expected Goals

LAK: 3.18

STL: 2.84

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 42%

LAK

Darcy Kuemper - 10-7-6 | 0.913 SV% | 2.27 GAA

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
LAK	Darcy Kuemper	33	29	4	87.9%	5.25	2	1.25
STL	Jordan Binnington	26	23	3	88.5%	3.19	1	0.19

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • LAK at home vs STL: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-01	LAK 2 - 1 STL	LAK	LAK
2026-01-24	STL 4 - 5 LAK	LAK	LAK
2025-10-21	STL 1 - 2 LAK	LAK	STL
2025-03-08	LAK 2 - 1 STL	LAK	LAK
2025-03-05	LAK 2 - 3 STL	STL	LAK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	LAK	9	0	0.27
1	STL	17	0	1.22
2	LAK	10	0	0.75
2	STL	18	0	1.27
3	LAK	11	0	0.40
3	STL	14	0	0.76
4	LAK	5	0	0.72
4	STL	1	0	0.16
5	LAK	3	1	1.05
5	STL	3	2	1.84

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Los Angeles Kings 2 - 3 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.2 - 2.8