Utah Hockey Club at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2025-03-06 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 2 - 4 Utah Hockey Club

Win Probability

DET: 27.9%

UTA: 72.1%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.00

UTA: 3.51

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

DET

Alex Lyon - 14-9-1 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	Alex Lyon	19	15	4	78.9%	2.72	1	-1.28
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	40	38	2	95.0%	4.39	3	2.39

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 75% • DET at home vs UTA: 0-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-04	UTA 4 - 1 DET	UTA	UTA
2025-12-17	DET 1 - 4 UTA	UTA	UTA
2025-03-24	UTA 1 - 5 DET	DET	UTA
2025-03-06	DET 2 - 4 UTA	UTA	UTA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	24	2	2.31
1	UTA	8	0	0.55
2	DET	18	1	1.33
2	UTA	12	0	1.07
3	DET	17	0	0.76
3	UTA	13	1	1.10

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 72.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 2 - 4 Utah Hockey Club

Expected: 3.0 - 3.5