Winnipeg Jets at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions
2025-03-06 • Wells Fargo Center
Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 4 Winnipeg Jets
🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PHI: 57.4%
WPG: 42.6%
Expected Goals
PHI: 2.81
WPG: 3.33
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 58%
Over 6.5: 41%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PHI
Dan Vladar - 17-9-6 | 0.905 SV% | 2.46 GAA
WPG
Connor Hellebuyck - 13-16-7 | 0.900 SV% | 2.79 GAA
| Stat | PHI | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.907 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.918 | 0.879 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.882 |
| GAA | 2.40 | 2.51 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 20% • PHI at home vs WPG: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-16 | PHI 2 - 5 WPG | WPG | PHI |
| 2025-03-06 | PHI 1 - 4 WPG | WPG | PHI |
| 2025-03-01 | WPG 1 - 2 PHI | PHI | WPG |
| 2024-02-08 | PHI 4 - 1 WPG | PHI | PHI |
| 2024-01-13 | WPG 0 - 2 PHI | PHI | WPG |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 08:32 | WPG | Goal |
| 1 | 15:13 | WPG | Goal |
| 2 | 05:28 | WPG | Goal |
| 2 | 09:03 | WPG | Goal |
| 3 | 17:18 | WPG | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 57.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 4 Winnipeg Jets
Expected: 2.8 - 3.3