Winnipeg Jets at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2025-03-06 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 4 Winnipeg Jets

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 52.6%

WPG: 47.4%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.22

WPG: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

WPG

Eric Comrie - 6-9-1 | 0.880 SV% | 3.49 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Samuel Ersson	27	23	4	85.2%	2.93	1	-1.07
WPG	Eric Comrie	22	21	1	95.5%	1.95	1	0.95

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • PHI at home vs WPG: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	WPG 1 - 7 PHI	PHI	WPG
2025-10-16	PHI 2 - 5 WPG	WPG	PHI
2025-03-06	PHI 1 - 4 WPG	WPG	PHI
2025-03-01	WPG 1 - 2 PHI	PHI	PHI
2024-02-08	PHI 4 - 1 WPG	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	14	0	0.38
1	WPG	16	1	1.26
2	PHI	11	0	0.73
2	WPG	17	0	1.09
3	PHI	15	1	0.84
3	WPG	14	0	0.58

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 4 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0