Calgary Flames at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-03-06 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 3 - 2 Calgary Flames

Win Probability

DAL: 55.0%

CGY: 45.0%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.65

CGY: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 51%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

CGY

Dan Vladar - 12-11-6 | 0.898 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	28	26	2	92.9%	2.17	2	0.17
CGY	Dan Vladar	27	24	3	88.9%	3.04	6	0.04

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • DAL at home vs CGY: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	DAL 4 - 3 CGY	DAL	DAL
2026-03-03	CGY 1 - 6 DAL	DAL	CGY
2025-11-22	CGY 3 - 2 DAL	CGY	CGY
2025-03-27	CGY 2 - 5 DAL	DAL	CGY
2025-03-06	DAL 3 - 2 CGY	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	12	2	1.01
1	CGY	15	1	0.91
2	DAL	12	2	0.93
2	CGY	19	1	1.02
3	DAL	11	1	0.73
3	CGY	4	0	0.03
4	DAL	2	1	0.37
4	CGY	2	0	0.22

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 3 - 2 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.7 - 2.9