Calgary Flames at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-03-06 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 3 - 2 Calgary Flames

Win Probability

DAL: 57.4%

CGY: 42.6%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.14

CGY: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • DAL at home vs CGY: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	DAL 4 - 3 CGY	DAL	DAL
2026-03-03	CGY 1 - 6 DAL	DAL	CGY
2025-11-22	CGY 3 - 2 DAL	CGY	CGY
2025-03-27	CGY 2 - 5 DAL	DAL	CGY
2025-03-06	DAL 3 - 2 CGY	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	12	2	1.01
1	CGY	15	1	0.91
2	DAL	12	2	0.93
2	CGY	19	1	1.02
3	DAL	11	1	0.73
3	CGY	4	0	0.03
4	DAL	2	1	0.37
4	CGY	2	0	0.22

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 3 - 2 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2