🏒 NHLForecasts.com
Data-Driven NHL Predictions & Analytics
2025-26 Season Live
📊 Daily Predictions 📈 Model Performance 🏆 Stanley Cup Odds ⚡ Live Win Probability

Montreal Canadiens at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2025-03-06 • Rogers Place
Edmonton Oilers 3 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability
EDM: 64.6%
MTL: 35.4%
Expected Goals
EDM: 3.70
MTL: 2.53
Total Goals
Median: 6.2
Over 5.5: 61%
Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

EDM
Tristan Jarry - 18-9-3 | 0.882 SV% | 3.32 GAA
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 29-10-4 | 0.901 SV% | 2.78 GAA
StatEDMMTL
Season SV%0.9060.889
Last 5 SV%0.8370.891
SV% vs Opponent0.8620.964
GAA2.733.01
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • EDM at home vs MTL: 3-0
DateScoreWinnerModel Pick
2025-12-14MTL 4 - 1 EDMMTLMTL
2025-10-23EDM 6 - 5 MTLEDMEDM
2025-03-06EDM 3 - 2 MTLEDMEDM
2024-11-18MTL 3 - 0 EDMMTLEDM
2024-03-19EDM 3 - 2 MTLEDMEDM

⚡ In-Game Win Probability

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 0:00 20:00 40:00 60:00 In-Game Win Probability Home Win Probability Game Time (minutes)

Goals

PeriodTimeTeamScorer
109:34EDMGoal
115:14EDMGoal
201:06EDMGoal
210:19EDMGoal
404:53EDMGoal

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 64.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
Edmonton Oilers 3 - 2 Montreal Canadiens
Expected: 3.7 - 2.5