Montreal Canadiens at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2025-03-06 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

EDM: 69.8%

MTL: 30.2%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.90

MTL: 2.35

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 49%

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Stuart Skinner	27	25	2	92.6%	2.88	1	0.88
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	32	29	3	90.6%	3.34	0	0.34

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • EDM at home vs MTL: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-14	MTL 4 - 1 EDM	MTL	EDM
2025-10-23	EDM 6 - 5 MTL	EDM	EDM
2025-03-06	EDM 3 - 2 MTL	EDM	EDM
2024-11-18	MTL 3 - 0 EDM	MTL	EDM
2024-03-19	EDM 3 - 2 MTL	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	13	0	0.89
1	MTL	14	0	0.86
2	EDM	20	0	1.28
2	MTL	8	1	0.90
3	EDM	17	0	0.76
3	MTL	8	0	0.65
4	EDM	3	0	0.42
4	MTL	4	0	0.47

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 69.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.9 - 2.3