Detroit Red Wings at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-03-07 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 5 - 2 Detroit Red Wings

Win Probability

WSH: 65.2%

DET: 34.8%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.51

DET: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 51%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 100% • WSH at home vs DET: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-29	DET 3 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-12-21	DET 3 - 2 WSH	DET	DET
2025-12-20	WSH 2 - 5 DET	DET	DET
2025-03-18	WSH 4 - 1 DET	WSH	WSH
2025-03-07	WSH 5 - 2 DET	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	12	2	0.84
1	DET	16	2	1.23
2	WSH	14	0	0.61
2	DET	10	0	0.34
3	WSH	15	0	0.84
3	DET	7	0	0.30

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 65.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 5 - 2 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.5 - 3.0