Utah Hockey Club at Chicago Blackhawks NHL Predictions

2025-03-07 • United Center

Chicago Blackhawks 4 - 3 Utah Hockey Club

🚨 Upset Win (57% underdog)

Win Probability

CHI: 43.3%

UTA: 56.7%

Expected Goals

CHI: 3.05

UTA: 3.14

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

CHI

Spencer Knight - 11-11-6 | 0.909 SV% | 2.63 GAA

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CHI	Spencer Knight	39	36	3	92.3%	4.60	2	1.60
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	25	21	4	84.0%	2.20	1	-1.80

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • CHI at home vs UTA: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-12	UTA 2 - 3 CHI	CHI	UTA
2026-03-09	CHI 3 - 2 UTA	CHI	UTA
2026-03-01	UTA 0 - 4 CHI	CHI	UTA
2025-10-13	CHI 3 - 1 UTA	CHI	CHI
2025-03-30	CHI 2 - 5 UTA	UTA	UTA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CHI	7	0	0.31
1	UTA	10	1	1.24
2	CHI	16	1	1.30
2	UTA	21	1	1.69
3	CHI	6	0	0.29
3	UTA	21	0	1.31
4	CHI	3	0	0.30
4	UTA	3	0	0.35

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Chicago Blackhawks 4 - 3 Utah Hockey Club

Expected: 3.0 - 3.1