Pittsburgh Penguins at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-03-07 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 0 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

VGK: 63.6%

PIT: 36.4%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.06

PIT: 2.49

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • VGK at home vs PIT: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-12	VGK 6 - 2 PIT	VGK	PIT
2026-03-01	PIT 5 - 0 VGK	PIT	PIT
2025-03-11	PIT 3 - 2 VGK	PIT	VGK
2025-03-07	VGK 4 - 0 PIT	VGK	VGK
2024-01-20	VGK 3 - 2 PIT	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	10	1	1.19
1	PIT	11	0	0.67
2	VGK	14	0	1.05
2	PIT	13	0	0.78
3	VGK	19	1	1.96
3	PIT	9	0	0.46

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.5

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 0 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.1 - 2.5