New York Rangers at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-03-08 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 4 - 3 New York Rangers

Win Probability

OTT: 60.4%

NYR: 39.6%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.28

NYR: 2.81

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 51%

Over 6.5: 40%

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Linus Ullmark	23	20	3	87.0%	2.49	0	-0.51
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	37	33	4	89.2%	3.53	3	-0.47

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • OTT at home vs NYR: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-23	NYR 1 - 2 OTT	OTT	OTT
2026-01-14	NYR 4 - 8 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-04	OTT 2 - 4 NYR	NYR	OTT
2025-03-08	OTT 4 - 3 NYR	OTT	OTT
2025-01-21	NYR 5 - 0 OTT	NYR	NYR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	14	0	0.92
1	NYR	14	0	0.45
2	OTT	12	0	0.60
2	NYR	16	0	1.37
3	OTT	20	3	1.92
3	NYR	12	0	0.66
4	OTT	1	0	0.09
4	NYR	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 4 - 3 New York Rangers

Expected: 3.3 - 2.8