Seattle Kraken at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2025-03-08 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 4 Seattle Kraken

🚨 Upset Loss (65% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 65.3%

SEA: 34.7%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.61

SEA: 2.75

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

SEA

Philipp Grubauer - 7-3-1 | 0.920 SV% | 2.32 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Samuel Ersson	32	28	4	87.5%	2.98	2	-1.02
SEA	Philipp Grubauer	24	23	1	95.8%	2.38	1	1.38

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • PHI at home vs SEA: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-28	SEA 4 - 1 PHI	SEA	PHI
2025-10-20	PHI 5 - 2 SEA	PHI	PHI
2025-03-08	PHI 1 - 4 SEA	SEA	PHI
2024-10-17	SEA 6 - 4 PHI	SEA	SEA
2024-02-10	PHI 3 - 2 SEA	PHI	SEA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	15	1	1.23
1	SEA	13	0	0.74
2	PHI	14	0	0.85
2	SEA	21	1	1.43
3	PHI	8	0	0.31
3	SEA	15	1	0.81

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 65.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 4 Seattle Kraken

Expected: 3.6 - 2.8