Boston Bruins at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2025-03-08 • Amalie Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 0 - 4 Boston Bruins
🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 59.3%
BOS: 40.7%
Expected Goals
TBL: 3.17
BOS: 2.59
Total Goals
Median: 4.5
Over 5.5: 35%
Over 6.5: 22%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
BOS
Jeremy Swayman - 31-18-4 | 0.907 SV% | 2.71 GAA
| Stat | TBL | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.903 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.919 | 0.904 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.909 | 0.902 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.84 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • TBL at home vs BOS: 5-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | BOS 1 - 2 TBL | TBL | TBL |
| 2026-04-04 | TBL 3 - 1 BOS | TBL | TBL |
| 2026-02-01 | TBL 6 - 5 BOS | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-10-13 | BOS 3 - 4 TBL | TBL | BOS |
| 2025-03-15 | BOS 2 - 6 TBL | TBL | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 10:32 | BOS | Goal |
| 3 | 13:16 | BOS | Goal |
| 3 | 14:52 | BOS | Goal |
| 3 | 15:53 | BOS | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 59.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 4.0
Expected: 5.8
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 0 - 4 Boston Bruins
Expected: 3.2 - 2.6
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