Toronto Maple Leafs at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2025-03-08 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 7 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

COL: 59.6%

TOR: 40.4%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.43

TOR: 2.82

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 45%

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	21	17	4	81.0%	1.71	1	-2.29
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	34	27	7	79.4%	4.82	3	-2.18

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • COL at home vs TOR: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-10	COL 3 - 6 TOR	TOR	COL
2026-01-25	TOR 1 - 4 COL	COL	COL
2026-01-12	COL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	COL
2025-03-19	TOR 2 - 1 COL	TOR	TOR
2025-03-08	COL 7 - 4 TOR	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	19	0	0.76
1	TOR	10	1	0.54
2	COL	23	1	1.60
2	TOR	8	0	0.53
3	COL	11	2	2.46
3	TOR	15	0	0.64

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 7 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.4 - 2.8