Montreal Canadiens at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2025-03-08 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 1 - 0 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

CGY: 57.9%

MTL: 42.1%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.07

MTL: 2.28

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 45%

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	26	26	0	100.0%	2.45	1	2.45
MTL	Jakub Dobes	24	23	1	95.8%	1.52	0	0.52

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • CGY at home vs MTL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-07	MTL 4 - 1 CGY	MTL	MTL
2025-10-22	CGY 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-03-08	CGY 1 - 0 MTL	CGY	CGY
2024-11-05	MTL 2 - 3 CGY	CGY	CGY
2024-03-16	CGY 5 - 2 MTL	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	13	0	0.67
1	MTL	8	0	0.26
2	CGY	14	0	0.55
2	MTL	19	0	0.91
3	CGY	8	0	0.30
3	MTL	19	1	1.28

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 1.0

Expected: 5.4

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 1 - 0 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.1 - 2.3