New York Islanders at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions
2025-03-08 • SAP Center at San Jose
San Jose Sharks 2 - 4 New York Islanders
🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
SJS: 54.4%
NYI: 45.6%
Expected Goals
SJS: 3.28
NYI: 3.23
Total Goals
Median: 6.4
Over 5.5: 65%
Over 6.5: 49%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
SJS
Yaroslav Askarov - 17-15-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.53 GAA
NYI
Ilya Sorokin - 20-13-2 | 0.916 SV% | 2.44 GAA
| Stat | SJS | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.896 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.874 | 0.930 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.852 | 0.917 |
| GAA | 3.36 | 2.55 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • SJS at home vs NYI: 0-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-21 | NYI 4 - 3 SJS | NYI | NYI |
| 2025-03-08 | SJS 2 - 4 NYI | NYI | SJS |
| 2025-01-18 | NYI 4 - 1 SJS | NYI | NYI |
| 2024-03-07 | SJS 2 - 7 NYI | NYI | SJS |
| 2023-12-05 | NYI 4 - 5 SJS | SJS | NYI |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10:43 | NYI | Goal |
| 1 | 19:21 | NYI | Goal |
| 2 | 06:27 | NYI | Goal |
| 3 | 01:13 | NYI | Goal |
| 3 | 03:51 | NYI | Goal |
| 3 | 18:33 | NYI | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 54.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 6.5
Score Breakdown
San Jose Sharks 2 - 4 New York Islanders
Expected: 3.3 - 3.2