New Jersey Devils at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions
2025-03-09 • Wells Fargo Center
Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 3 New Jersey Devils
🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PHI: 59.1%
NJD: 40.9%
Expected Goals
PHI: 2.96
NJD: 2.67
Total Goals
Median: 5.8
Over 5.5: 52%
Over 6.5: 38%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PHI
Dan Vladar - 17-9-6 | 0.905 SV% | 2.46 GAA
NJD
Jacob Markstrom - 15-13-1 | 0.882 SV% | 3.20 GAA
| Stat | PHI | NJD |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.884 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.918 | 0.899 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.910 | 0.871 |
| GAA | 2.40 | 3.32 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • PHI at home vs NJD: 3-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-29 | NJD 3 - 5 PHI | PHI | NJD |
| 2025-11-22 | PHI 6 - 3 NJD | PHI | PHI |
| 2025-03-09 | PHI 1 - 3 NJD | NJD | PHI |
| 2025-01-29 | NJD 5 - 0 PHI | NJD | NJD |
| 2025-01-27 | PHI 4 - 2 NJD | PHI | PHI |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11:10 | NJD | Goal |
| 2 | 05:39 | NJD | Goal |
| 3 | 19:42 | NJD | Goal |
| 3 | 15:14 | NJD | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 59.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 4.0
Expected: 5.6
Score Breakdown
Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 3 New Jersey Devils
Expected: 3.0 - 2.7