Seattle Kraken at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-03-09 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 4 - 2 Seattle Kraken

Win Probability

WSH: 69.1%

SEA: 30.9%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.61

SEA: 3.25

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

SEA

Joey Daccord - 10-9-5 | 0.903 SV% | 2.77 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	32	30	2	93.8%	3.56	3	1.56
SEA	Joey Daccord	24	20	4	83.3%	2.38	2	-1.62

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • WSH at home vs SEA: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-27	SEA 5 - 1 WSH	SEA	WSH
2025-10-21	WSH 4 - 1 SEA	WSH	WSH
2025-03-09	WSH 4 - 2 SEA	WSH	WSH
2025-01-23	SEA 0 - 3 WSH	WSH	WSH
2024-03-14	SEA 1 - 2 WSH	WSH	SEA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	13	1	0.87
1	SEA	24	2	1.50
2	WSH	10	0	0.45
2	SEA	16	0	1.20
3	WSH	16	1	1.06
3	SEA	15	1	0.86

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 69.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 4 - 2 Seattle Kraken

Expected: 3.6 - 3.2