Los Angeles Kings at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-03-09 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 5 - 6 Los Angeles Kings

🚨 Upset Loss (66% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 66.1%

LAK: 33.9%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.65

LAK: 2.69

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 43%

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

LAK

David Rittich - 16-14-2 | 0.886 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Adin Hill	35	29	6	82.9%	3.59	3	-2.41
LAK	David Rittich	32	27	5	84.4%	2.52	1	-2.48

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • VGK at home vs LAK: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-25	LAK 4 - 6 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-02-05	VGK 4 - 1 LAK	VGK	VGK
2026-01-14	LAK 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-10-08	VGK 5 - 6 LAK	LAK	VGK
2025-03-09	VGK 5 - 6 LAK	LAK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	8	1	0.30
1	LAK	23	0	1.32
2	VGK	22	0	1.21
2	LAK	11	0	0.53
3	VGK	14	0	1.01
3	LAK	15	3	1.74

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 66.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 5 - 6 Los Angeles Kings

Expected: 3.6 - 2.7