Dallas Stars at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions
2025-03-09 • Rogers Arena
Vancouver Canucks 1 - 4 Dallas Stars
🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
VAN: 54.9%
DAL: 45.1%
Expected Goals
VAN: 3.28
DAL: 3.16
Total Goals
Median: 6.6
Over 5.5: 64%
Over 6.5: 52%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
VAN
Kevin Lankinen - 11-26-5 | 0.877 SV% | 3.65 GAA
DAL
Jake Oettinger - 35-12-6 | 0.899 SV% | 2.59 GAA
| Stat | VAN | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.885 | 0.907 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.872 | 0.916 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.833 | 0.940 |
| GAA | 3.41 | 2.57 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • VAN at home vs DAL: 1-4
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-02 | VAN 1 - 6 DAL | DAL | DAL |
| 2025-11-20 | VAN 2 - 4 DAL | DAL | VAN |
| 2025-10-16 | DAL 3 - 5 VAN | VAN | DAL |
| 2025-04-08 | DAL 5 - 6 VAN | VAN | VAN |
| 2025-03-09 | VAN 1 - 4 DAL | DAL | VAN |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 05:17 | DAL | Goal |
| 2 | 11:35 | VAN | Goal |
| 2 | 19:34 | DAL | Goal |
| 3 | 08:26 | DAL | Goal |
| 3 | 18:52 | DAL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 54.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.4
Score Breakdown
Vancouver Canucks 1 - 4 Dallas Stars
Expected: 3.3 - 3.2
Like this analysis? Get it daily.
Short, data-driven emails. Unsubscribe any time.