Dallas Stars at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2025-03-09 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 1 - 4 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

VAN: 59.8%

DAL: 40.2%

Expected Goals

VAN: 3.41

DAL: 3.45

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • VAN at home vs DAL: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-02	VAN 1 - 6 DAL	DAL	VAN
2025-11-20	VAN 2 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-10-16	DAL 3 - 5 VAN	VAN	DAL
2025-04-08	DAL 5 - 6 VAN	VAN	VAN
2025-03-09	VAN 1 - 4 DAL	DAL	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	10	0	0.54
1	DAL	8	0	0.15
2	VAN	11	0	0.66
2	DAL	14	0	0.85
3	VAN	18	2	1.73
3	DAL	7	3	1.51

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown

Vancouver Canucks 1 - 4 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.4 - 3.5