New York Islanders at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2025-03-09 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 4 - 1 New York Islanders

Win Probability

ANA: 50.8%

NYI: 49.2%

Expected Goals

ANA: 3.07

NYI: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 43%

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

NYI

Marcus Hogberg - 0-0-0 | 0.714 SV% | 8.90 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ANA	Lukas Dostal	32	31	1	96.9%	2.37	0	1.37
NYI	Marcus Hogberg	28	24	4	85.7%	4.18	3	0.18

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • ANA at home vs NYI: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-04	ANA 5 - 1 NYI	ANA	NYI
2025-12-11	NYI 5 - 2 ANA	NYI	NYI
2025-03-09	ANA 4 - 1 NYI	ANA	ANA
2024-10-29	NYI 1 - 3 ANA	ANA	NYI
2024-03-10	ANA 1 - 6 NYI	NYI	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ANA	19	0	1.29
1	NYI	8	0	0.25
2	ANA	19	0	1.31
2	NYI	15	0	0.66
3	ANA	11	3	1.58
3	NYI	27	0	1.47

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Anaheim Ducks 4 - 1 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.1 - 2.9