Edmonton Oilers at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2025-03-10 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 46.3%

EDM: 53.7%

Expected Goals

BUF: 2.96

EDM: 3.32

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • BUF at home vs EDM: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-09	EDM 3 - 4 BUF	BUF	EDM
2025-11-17	BUF 5 - 1 EDM	BUF	EDM
2025-03-10	BUF 3 - 2 EDM	BUF	EDM
2025-01-25	EDM 3 - 2 BUF	EDM	EDM
2024-03-21	EDM 8 - 3 BUF	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	15	1	0.99
1	EDM	15	0	0.82
2	BUF	10	0	0.53
2	EDM	12	0	0.89
3	BUF	10	0	0.86
3	EDM	20	0	1.29

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.0 - 3.3