Edmonton Oilers at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2025-03-10 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Win (57% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 43.0%

EDM: 57.0%

Expected Goals

BUF: 2.91

EDM: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 50%

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	34	32	2	94.1%	3.00	0	1.00
EDM	Stuart Skinner	23	20	3	87.0%	2.39	1	-0.61

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • BUF at home vs EDM: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-09	EDM 3 - 4 BUF	BUF	EDM
2025-11-17	BUF 5 - 1 EDM	BUF	EDM
2025-03-10	BUF 3 - 2 EDM	BUF	EDM
2025-01-25	EDM 3 - 2 BUF	EDM	EDM
2024-03-21	EDM 8 - 3 BUF	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	15	1	0.99
1	EDM	15	0	0.82
2	BUF	10	0	0.53
2	EDM	12	0	0.89
3	BUF	10	0	0.86
3	EDM	20	0	1.29

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 2.9 - 3.0