Detroit Red Wings at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-03-10 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 2 - 1 Detroit Red Wings

Win Probability

OTT: 57.4%

DET: 42.6%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.16

DET: 2.98

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 41%

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

DET

Cam Talbot - 11-6-3 | 0.888 SV% | 2.99 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Linus Ullmark	49	48	1	98.0%	5.07	6	4.07
DET	Cam Talbot	23	21	2	91.3%	2.96	1	0.96

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • OTT at home vs DET: 6-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-06	DET 5 - 3 OTT	DET	DET
2026-03-24	DET 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	DET
2026-02-26	OTT 1 - 2 DET	DET	OTT
2026-01-18	DET 4 - 3 OTT	DET	DET
2026-01-05	OTT 3 - 5 DET	DET	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	12	0	0.61
1	DET	12	1	0.85
2	OTT	12	0	0.91
2	DET	34	4	2.98
3	OTT	10	1	1.44
3	DET	21	1	1.24

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 2 - 1 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0