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Toronto Maple Leafs at Utah Hockey Club NHL Predictions

2025-03-10 • Delta Center
Utah Hockey Club 3 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs
🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability
UTA: 59.5%
TOR: 40.5%
Expected Goals
UTA: 3.19
TOR: 2.86
Total Goals
Median: 5.5
Over 5.5: 51%
Over 6.5: 35%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

UTA
Karel Vejmelka - 38-20-3 | 0.897 SV% | 2.73 GAA
TOR
Joseph Woll - 15-16-7 | 0.898 SV% | 3.34 GAA
StatUTATOR
Season SV%0.8950.914
Last 5 SV%0.8780.863
SV% vs Opponent0.950—
GAA2.682.74
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 75% • UTA at home vs TOR: 1-1
DateScoreWinnerModel Pick
2026-01-13UTA 6 - 1 TORUTAUTA
2025-11-05TOR 5 - 3 UTATORTOR
2025-03-10UTA 3 - 4 TORTORUTA
2024-11-24TOR 3 - 2 UTATORTOR

⚡ In-Game Win Probability

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 0:00 20:00 40:00 60:00 In-Game Win Probability Home Win Probability Game Time (minutes)

Goals

PeriodTimeTeamScorer
112:42TORGoal
119:38TORGoal
204:48TORGoal
208:14TORGoal
209:03TORGoal
212:11UTAGoal
500:00UTAGoal
500:00UTAGoal
500:00UTAGoal

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 59.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Utah Hockey Club 3 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected: 3.2 - 2.9