Florida Panthers at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2025-03-11 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 3 - 2 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

BOS: 49.3%

FLA: 50.7%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.10

FLA: 3.42

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 45%

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	28	26	2	92.9%	2.99	0	0.99
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	24	21	3	87.5%	2.60	2	-0.40

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 59% • BOS at home vs FLA: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	FLA 2 - 1 BOS	FLA	FLA
2026-02-04	FLA 5 - 4 BOS	FLA	FLA
2025-10-21	BOS 3 - 4 FLA	FLA	FLA
2025-03-11	BOS 3 - 2 FLA	BOS	FLA
2025-01-11	FLA 3 - 4 BOS	BOS	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	12	2	1.11
1	FLA	14	0	0.69
2	BOS	13	0	0.36
2	FLA	14	0	1.02
3	BOS	17	0	1.12
3	FLA	16	0	1.28

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 3 - 2 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.1 - 3.4