Ottawa Senators at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions
2025-03-11 • Wells Fargo Center
Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 5 Ottawa Senators
🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PHI: 60.8%
OTT: 39.2%
Expected Goals
PHI: 3.03
OTT: 2.98
Total Goals
Median: 5.9
Over 5.5: 54%
Over 6.5: 38%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PHI
Dan Vladar - 17-9-6 | 0.905 SV% | 2.46 GAA
OTT
Linus Ullmark - 16-8-5 | 0.884 SV% | 2.86 GAA
| Stat | PHI | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.881 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.918 | 0.882 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.933 | 0.933 |
| GAA | 2.40 | 2.95 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • PHI at home vs OTT: 1-4
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-05 | PHI 1 - 2 OTT | OTT | PHI |
| 2025-11-08 | PHI 2 - 3 OTT | OTT | PHI |
| 2025-10-23 | OTT 2 - 1 PHI | OTT | OTT |
| 2025-04-13 | OTT 4 - 3 PHI | OTT | OTT |
| 2025-03-11 | PHI 2 - 5 OTT | OTT | PHI |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 00:24 | OTT | Goal |
| 2 | 03:05 | PHI | Goal |
| 2 | 04:14 | OTT | Goal |
| 2 | 08:45 | PHI | Goal |
| 2 | 15:01 | OTT | Goal |
| 3 | 10:59 | OTT | Goal |
| 3 | 19:25 | OTT | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 60.8%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 5 Ottawa Senators
Expected: 3.0 - 3.0