Ottawa Senators at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2025-03-11 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 5 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 61.5%

OTT: 38.5%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.36

OTT: 2.98

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • PHI at home vs OTT: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	PHI 1 - 2 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-11-08	PHI 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-10-23	OTT 2 - 1 PHI	OTT	OTT
2025-04-13	OTT 4 - 3 PHI	OTT	OTT
2025-03-11	PHI 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	11	0	0.75
1	OTT	8	0	0.19
2	PHI	15	0	0.95
2	OTT	19	0	1.56
3	PHI	11	0	0.26
3	OTT	6	2	1.68

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 5 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.4 - 3.0