Vegas Golden Knights at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-03-11 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 46.8%

VGK: 53.2%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.10

VGK: 3.36

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PIT at home vs VGK: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-12	VGK 6 - 2 PIT	VGK	PIT
2026-03-01	PIT 5 - 0 VGK	PIT	PIT
2025-03-11	PIT 3 - 2 VGK	PIT	VGK
2025-03-07	VGK 4 - 0 PIT	VGK	VGK
2024-01-20	VGK 3 - 2 PIT	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	13	0	0.78
1	VGK	13	0	0.92
2	PIT	12	1	0.75
2	VGK	15	0	0.83
3	PIT	10	0	0.61
3	VGK	25	0	1.23
4	PIT	1	0	0.04
4	VGK	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.1 - 3.4