Vegas Golden Knights at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-03-11 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 45.5%

VGK: 54.5%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.13

VGK: 3.32

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 43%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

VGK

Ilya Samsonov - 16-9-4 | 0.891 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	37	35	2	94.6%	2.97	0	0.97
VGK	Ilya Samsonov	17	14	3	82.4%	2.18	1	-0.82

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • PIT at home vs VGK: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-12	VGK 6 - 2 PIT	VGK	VGK
2026-03-01	PIT 5 - 0 VGK	PIT	VGK
2025-03-11	PIT 3 - 2 VGK	PIT	VGK
2025-03-07	VGK 4 - 0 PIT	VGK	VGK
2024-01-20	VGK 3 - 2 PIT	VGK	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	13	0	0.78
1	VGK	13	0	0.92
2	PIT	12	1	0.75
2	VGK	15	0	0.83
3	PIT	10	0	0.61
3	VGK	25	0	1.23
4	PIT	1	0	0.04
4	VGK	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.1 - 3.3