New York Rangers at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2025-03-11 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 2 - 1 New York Rangers

Win Probability

WPG: 50.8%

NYR: 49.2%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.31

NYR: 2.81

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	22	21	1	95.5%	2.56	2	1.56
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	24	22	2	91.7%	2.97	1	0.97

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • WPG at home vs NYR: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	NYR 2 - 3 WPG	WPG	NYR
2026-03-12	WPG 3 - 6 NYR	NYR	WPG
2025-03-11	WPG 2 - 1 NYR	WPG	WPG
2024-11-12	NYR 3 - 6 WPG	WPG	WPG
2024-03-19	NYR 2 - 4 WPG	WPG	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	16	0	0.75
1	NYR	16	1	1.03
2	WPG	11	1	1.49
2	NYR	14	0	0.56
3	WPG	12	0	0.73
3	NYR	17	1	0.97

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 2 - 1 New York Rangers

Expected: 3.3 - 2.8