Montreal Canadiens at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2025-03-11 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 2 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

Win Probability

VAN: 57.7%

MTL: 42.3%

Expected Goals

VAN: 3.28

MTL: 2.37

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 52%

VAN

Kevin Lankinen - 6-10-3 | 0.885 SV% | 3.41 GAA

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Kevin Lankinen	27	23	4	85.2%	3.49	3	-0.51
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	31	29	2	93.5%	3.62	3	1.62

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • VAN at home vs MTL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-12	MTL 6 - 3 VAN	MTL	MTL
2025-10-25	VAN 3 - 4 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-03-11	VAN 2 - 4 MTL	MTL	VAN
2025-01-06	MTL 5 - 4 VAN	MTL	MTL
2024-03-21	VAN 4 - 1 MTL	VAN	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	23	2	1.52
1	MTL	11	1	0.90
2	VAN	18	1	1.61
2	MTL	18	0	1.19
3	VAN	14	0	0.49
3	MTL	13	2	1.40

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Vancouver Canucks 2 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.3 - 2.4