Montreal Canadiens at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions
2025-03-11 • Rogers Arena
Vancouver Canucks 2 - 4 Montreal Canadiens
🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
VAN: 58.3%
MTL: 41.7%
Expected Goals
VAN: 2.68
MTL: 3.27
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 59%
Over 6.5: 45%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
VAN
Kevin Lankinen - 7-19-4 | 0.876 SV% | 3.67 GAA
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 18-5-4 | 0.892 SV% | 2.96 GAA
| Stat | VAN | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.885 | 0.889 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.793 | 0.903 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.833 | 0.889 |
| GAA | 3.41 | 3.01 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • VAN at home vs MTL: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-12 | MTL 6 - 3 VAN | MTL | MTL |
| 2025-10-25 | VAN 3 - 4 MTL | MTL | VAN |
| 2025-03-11 | VAN 2 - 4 MTL | MTL | VAN |
| 2025-01-06 | MTL 5 - 4 VAN | MTL | MTL |
| 2024-03-21 | VAN 4 - 1 MTL | VAN | VAN |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 08:34 | MTL | Goal |
| 1 | 01:06 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 08:59 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 19:43 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 11:08 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 04:05 | MTL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 58.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 5.9
Score Breakdown
Vancouver Canucks 2 - 4 Montreal Canadiens
Expected: 2.7 - 3.3