Montreal Canadiens at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2025-03-11 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 2 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

Win Probability

VAN: 58.4%

MTL: 41.6%

Expected Goals

VAN: 3.46

MTL: 2.87

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 53%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • VAN at home vs MTL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-12	MTL 6 - 3 VAN	MTL	MTL
2025-10-25	VAN 3 - 4 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-03-11	VAN 2 - 4 MTL	MTL	VAN
2025-01-06	MTL 5 - 4 VAN	MTL	MTL
2024-03-21	VAN 4 - 1 MTL	VAN	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	23	2	1.52
1	MTL	11	1	0.90
2	VAN	18	1	1.61
2	MTL	18	0	1.19
3	VAN	14	0	0.49
3	MTL	13	2	1.40

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Vancouver Canucks 2 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.5 - 2.9