Washington Capitals at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2025-03-11 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 4 - 7 Washington Capitals

Win Probability

ANA: 40.6%

WSH: 59.4%

Expected Goals

ANA: 2.92

WSH: 3.80

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 49%

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ANA	Lukas Dostal	43	36	7	83.7%	5.78	4	-1.22
WSH	Logan Thompson	29	25	4	86.2%	3.77	2	-0.23

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • ANA at home vs WSH: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-05	WSH 7 - 4 ANA	WSH	WSH
2025-12-05	ANA 4 - 3 WSH	ANA	WSH
2025-03-11	ANA 4 - 7 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-01-14	WSH 3 - 0 ANA	WSH	WSH
2024-01-16	WSH 2 - 0 ANA	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ANA	15	2	1.28
1	WSH	25	1	1.76
2	ANA	14	0	1.02
2	WSH	17	1	1.62
3	ANA	20	0	1.48
3	WSH	21	2	2.39

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Anaheim Ducks 4 - 7 Washington Capitals

Expected: 2.9 - 3.8