New York Islanders at Los Angeles Kings NHL Predictions

2025-03-11 • Crypto.com Arena

Los Angeles Kings 4 - 1 New York Islanders

Win Probability

LAK: 60.5%

NYI: 39.5%

Expected Goals

LAK: 3.30

NYI: 2.92

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 44%

LAK

Darcy Kuemper - 10-7-6 | 0.913 SV% | 2.27 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
LAK	Darcy Kuemper	34	33	1	97.1%	3.90	1	2.90
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	32	28	4	87.5%	3.32	2	-0.68

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • LAK at home vs NYI: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-13	NYI 2 - 3 LAK	LAK	LAK
2026-03-05	LAK 5 - 3 NYI	LAK	LAK
2025-03-11	LAK 4 - 1 NYI	LAK	LAK
2024-12-10	NYI 1 - 3 LAK	LAK	LAK
2024-03-11	LAK 3 - 0 NYI	LAK	LAK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	LAK	19	1	1.40
1	NYI	10	0	0.68
2	LAK	13	0	0.92
2	NYI	22	1	2.20
3	LAK	9	1	1.01
3	NYI	15	0	1.01

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Los Angeles Kings 4 - 1 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.3 - 2.9