Vancouver Canucks at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2025-03-12 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 3 - 4 Vancouver Canucks

🚨 Upset Loss (72% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 71.6%

VAN: 28.4%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.56

VAN: 2.48

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 40%

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

VAN

Kevin Lankinen - 6-10-3 | 0.885 SV% | 3.41 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	33	28	5	84.8%	5.83	5	0.83
VAN	Kevin Lankinen	27	23	4	85.2%	3.21	3	-0.79

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • CGY at home vs VAN: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	CGY 7 - 3 VAN	CGY	CGY
2025-11-23	VAN 2 - 5 CGY	CGY	CGY
2025-10-09	VAN 5 - 1 CGY	VAN	VAN
2025-03-12	CGY 3 - 4 VAN	VAN	CGY
2024-12-31	CGY 3 - 1 VAN	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	14	1	0.99
1	VAN	8	1	0.81
2	CGY	9	1	0.79
2	VAN	11	0	0.55
3	CGY	7	0	0.29
3	VAN	23	1	1.74
4	CGY	1	0	0.12
4	VAN	9	1	0.93
5	CGY	4	1	1.02
5	VAN	4	2	1.80

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 71.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 3 - 4 Vancouver Canucks

Expected: 3.6 - 2.5