Vancouver Canucks at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions
2025-03-12 • Scotiabank Saddledome
Calgary Flames 3 - 4 Vancouver Canucks
🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
CGY: 59.3%
VAN: 40.7%
Expected Goals
CGY: 3.12
VAN: 2.84
Total Goals
Median: 5.8
Over 5.5: 53%
Over 6.5: 37%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
CGY
Dustin Wolf - 16-21-3 | 0.895 SV% | 3.00 GAA
VAN
Kevin Lankinen - 7-19-4 | 0.876 SV% | 3.67 GAA
| Stat | CGY | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.901 | 0.885 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.877 | 0.793 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.877 | 0.762 |
| GAA | 2.82 | 3.41 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • CGY at home vs VAN: 2-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-23 | VAN 2 - 5 CGY | CGY | VAN |
| 2025-10-09 | VAN 5 - 1 CGY | VAN | VAN |
| 2025-03-12 | CGY 3 - 4 VAN | VAN | CGY |
| 2024-12-31 | CGY 3 - 1 VAN | CGY | CGY |
| 2024-11-12 | VAN 3 - 1 CGY | VAN | VAN |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13:33 | VAN | Goal |
| 1 | 17:53 | CGY | Goal |
| 2 | 10:32 | VAN | Goal |
| 2 | 13:58 | CGY | Goal |
| 2 | 16:01 | CGY | Goal |
| 3 | 13:16 | CGY | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | CGY | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | CGY | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | CGY | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 59.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
Calgary Flames 3 - 4 Vancouver Canucks
Expected: 3.1 - 2.8