Boston Bruins at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-03-13 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 6 - 3 Boston Bruins

Win Probability

OTT: 58.2%

BOS: 41.8%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.45

BOS: 2.77

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 47%

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Linus Ullmark	25	22	3	88.0%	2.82	4	-0.18
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	32	26	6	81.2%	4.24	5	-1.76

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • OTT at home vs BOS: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-21	BOS 2 - 6 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-11-13	OTT 5 - 3 BOS	OTT	OTT
2025-11-06	BOS 3 - 2 OTT	BOS	OTT
2025-10-27	OTT 7 - 2 BOS	OTT	OTT
2025-03-13	OTT 6 - 3 BOS	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	21	0	1.05
1	BOS	4	1	0.26
2	OTT	14	1	0.79
2	BOS	17	2	1.61
3	OTT	11	4	2.39
3	BOS	14	1	0.95

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 6 - 3 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.5 - 2.8