Tampa Bay Lightning at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions
2025-03-13 • Wells Fargo Center
Philadelphia Flyers 4 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PHI: 54.4%
TBL: 45.6%
Expected Goals
PHI: 2.92
TBL: 3.35
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 61%
Over 6.5: 44%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PHI
Dan Vladar - 17-9-6 | 0.905 SV% | 2.46 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
| Stat | PHI | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.918 | 0.921 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.840 | 0.950 |
| GAA | 2.40 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • PHI at home vs TBL: 2-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-12 | PHI 1 - 5 TBL | TBL | PHI |
| 2026-01-10 | PHI 2 - 7 TBL | TBL | PHI |
| 2025-11-24 | TBL 3 - 0 PHI | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-03-17 | TBL 2 - 0 PHI | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-03-13 | PHI 4 - 3 TBL | PHI | PHI |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 08:29 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 14:20 | PHI | Goal |
| 2 | 00:15 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 10:55 | PHI | Goal |
| 2 | 19:01 | PHI | Goal |
| 3 | 03:50 | PHI | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | PHI | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | PHI | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | PHI | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 54.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
Philadelphia Flyers 4 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 2.9 - 3.4