St. Louis Blues at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-03-13 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 3 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 45.8%

STL: 54.2%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.19

STL: 3.59

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • PIT at home vs STL: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-14	STL 7 - 5 PIT	STL	PIT
2025-10-27	PIT 6 - 3 STL	PIT	STL
2025-04-03	STL 5 - 4 PIT	STL	STL
2025-03-13	PIT 5 - 3 STL	PIT	STL
2023-12-30	PIT 4 - 2 STL	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	5	0	0.18
1	STL	21	0	1.10
2	PIT	16	0	0.65
2	STL	18	0	0.62
3	PIT	10	2	1.68
3	STL	11	0	0.73

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 3 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.2 - 3.6